Miami at Buffalo – Thursday, 8:20 – Another rather boring Thursday matchup features two teams looking to rebound after losses in Week 10, though they did so in decidedly different fashions. Miami (4-5), who had appeared to be angling for a playoff spot as recently as a couple of weeks ago, has dropped two in a row and was absolutely throttled by a bad Tennessee team last week. This was due in large part to Ryan Tannehill’s having a rookie moment, throwing three picks, one of which was returned for a touchdown. Tannehill must avoid another performance like that for the ‘Fins to win. Buffalo (3-6), the cellar dwellers of the AFC East, surprised many (including myself) by taking New England to the wire, coming up short by six in the end. The Buffalo running back tandem of Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller will need their A-game going against a top notch Miami rush defense (94.2 yards allowed per game, good for 5th league wide). I think Buffalo will have trouble establishing the run, and turn to quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to carry them, which hasn’t worked out well this year. Miami will bounce back on the road.
Arizona at Atlanta – Sunday, 1:00 – Atlanta (8-1) dropped their first contest of the year at the Superdome in Week 10, leaving no undefeated teams in the league. The majority of the blame for the loss can be placed on the Falcon defense, which wasn’t up to the task of stopping Drew Brees. Luckily for Atlanta fans, the 31st ranked offense is coming to town. Arizona (4-5) has dropped five straight, and is coming off of a much-needed bye. It’s difficult to imagine the Cardinals being able to put up enough points to keep up with Matty Ice and his arsenal of weapons, even though the Arizona D is very good. The Cards are a sinking ship, and they won’t be able to bail themselves out in Atlanta. The Falcons should right their ship after their first loss.
Tampa Bay at Carolina – Sunday, 1:00 – This NFC South matchup features one team fighting to make the playoffs, and another, well, not fighting to make the playoffs. Tampa (5-4) has rebounded from a 2-4 start by ripping off three wins in a row, and first year head coach Greg Schiano has all units playing good football. Tampa’s offense has been carried by the resurgence of quarterback Josh Freeman and the emergence of rookie back Doug Martin, whose success is crucial to the success of the team. The Buccaneers’ weak spot is in the secondary, but Cam Newton has been far too inconsistent this year to expect him to take advantage of his opponent’s defect. Carolina makes far more mistakes than Tampa, and that is why they find themselves out of the playoff chase, and why they’ll struggle against the Bucs. Tampa keeps rolling.
Cleveland at Dallas – Sunday, 1:00 – Dallas saved the jobs of many of their coaches by besting Philadelphia last Sunday. The Cowboys (4-5) got a major boost from two defensive touchdowns and a punt return to the house, and the offense was competent enough to win the game. After being in such a tailspin, there is no better remedy than facing the Eagles, and then the Browns. Cleveland (2-7) has been competitive in most of their games, but just isn’t a good team. Brandon Weeden and others are playing for their jobs in the wake of the looming off-season changes, but their struggles will likely continue in Big D. I like Dallas to get to .500 with a home W.
Green Bay at Detroit – Sunday, 1:00 – The Lions need a win this week against their hated NFC North rival to maintain any hope of a playoff berth. For a team with so much talent, it is disappointing that the Lions (4-5) haven’t been able to put things together, and their season has been defined by inconsistency. Detroit hasn’t beaten many good teams, and Green Bay will not be willing to lie down for the Lions. The Packers (6-3) are absolutely rolling, having won four straight games. Injuries have hampered Green Bay on offense, but the Detroit defense is still clearly at a disadvantage in this game. Detroit will put up a fight to keep their season alive, but I think Green Bay overwhelms the Lions and picks up the victory.
Jacksonville at Houston – Sunday, 1:00 – The Jags (1-8) meet the Texans (8-1) for the second time this year, this time at Reliant Stadium. Houston is clearly the better team on paper, as well as on the field, in almost every aspect of the game. The Texans affirmed their status as one of the league’s best teams by taking down the Bears in a rain-soaked Sunday night contest in Chicago. The combination of Houston’s efficient offense and stingy defense has proved difficult to best, and Jacksonville is simply overmatched in this game. Without Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jags have no shot. Houston will win easily.
Cincinnati at Kansas City – Sunday, 1:00 – Cincinnati reminded everyone that they’re still in the playoff hunt with a statement win against a Giants team that looked simply outclassed. The Bengals (4-5) dominated in every facet of the game, and found ways to capitalize on Giant mistakes. If they can take advantage of turnovers again, Cincinnati should be in great shape against the Chiefs, whose -20 turnover margin is almost historically bad and currently the worst in the league. Kansas City (1-8) has some decent pieces, but is far from a complete team, and unless they turn in an uncharacteristically good performance, Kansas City will be overmatched. Arrowhead Stadium is a brutal environment for road teams, but I don’t think it will matter come Sunday. I like Cincinnati to get it done on the road.
New York Jets at St. Louis – Sunday, 1:00 – Off-the-field drama has again dominated the Jets’ headlines this week. A Daily News report cited numerous Jet players as describing Tim Tebow as “terrible,” and others calling for the removal of Mark Sanchez from his job. Yeesh. In any respect, the Jets (3-6) are an absolute mess on both sides of the ball. A switch at quarterback, or any other position for that matter, will not make the offense any less hapless. New York travels to the Edward Jones Dome to face a Rams team (3-5-1) that played one of the league’s best in the Niners extremely tight. So tight, in fact, that the game ended in the league’s first tie since 2008. Sam Bradford and the rest of the St. Louis offense came up big against an outstanding 49er defense, and another strong game should secure victory. I like the Rams to capitalize on the errors the Jets are sure to make and win the game.
Philadelphia at Washington – Sunday, 1:00 – The Nick Foles era got a premature start when Michael Vick got knocked out of the game with what was described as a “pretty significant” concussion. Foles was predictably bad, and Philly dropped the game and went to 3-6 and effectively ending any hope for a playoff berth. At this point, the Eagles players and staff are fighting for their jobs, and I wouldn’t expect much improvement. Washington (3-6) has lost three straight and is also out of contention, and head coach Mike Shanahan had to dispel rumors that he has given up on the team this week. Washington’s failure to put up points of late is a major problem, and the key will be for the offensive line to protect RG3. I think they will do a good job of negating the Philly pass rush, allowing Washington to get a win.
New Orleans at Oakland – Sunday, 4:05 – Joe Vitt and the Saints (4-5) are as dangerous as any team in the league right now. New Orleans took down formerly undefeated Atlanta for the first time this year, and after a terrible start, have placed themselves back in the hunt. Their defense is still an extreme liability, but I’ll be shocked if the Raiders take advantage. Oakland (3-6) has one good win this year, against Pittsburgh. Their other two victories came against Jacksonville and Kansas City, whose combined record is 2-16. Carson Palmer has put up some good numbers, but Oakland’s defense is no match for the New Orleans offense. The Saints should come out of the Black Hole with an easy win.
San Diego at Denver – Sunday, 4:25 – The biggest story surrounding the Chargers (4-5) has nothing to do with on-field play. Instead, Norv Turner’s testy post game conference after another bad loss has dominated San Diego headlines and has many wondering whether he is on edge about being on the hot seat. In any case, this Chargers team hasn’t beaten a single team with a winning record yet, and to do so in Denver will be extremely tough. The Broncos (6-3) have taken firm control of the AFC West, and have won four straight. Denver is obviously good on offense with Peyton Manning at the helm, but the Bronco defense has quietly put together a strong campaign (6th in yards allowed). Denver is the superior squad here, and I think the Broncos get the win at Mile High.
Indianapolis at New England – Sunday, 4:25 – Two old enemies meet in Foxboro in Week 11. The new look Colts (6-3) have ridden the wave of emotion from Chuck Pagano’s absence to four straight wins, due in large part to the play of Andrew Luck. The rookie has another chance to shine against a Patriots secondary that is still weak, even with the addition of former Tampa cornerback Aqib Talib. New England (6-3) almost allowed a game-winning touchdown drive by the Bills before an interception in the end zone saved the win. This Pats team allows a ton of yards, but they still are a dangerous team because of their explosive offense. New England is usually extremely difficult to beat at home, and though Foxboro has been kinder to road teams this year, Indianapolis still has a tough game ahead of them. I think the firepower of New England leads the Patriots to victory.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh – Sunday, 8:20 – Baltimore and Pittsburgh will meet at Heinz Field Sunday night to determine who holds first place in the AFC North. Both teams picked up wins in Week 10, but in decidedly different fashions. The Ravens (7-2) absolutely trounced the Raiders, putting up 55 points in the process. Pittsburgh (6-3), on the other hand, needed an overtime field goal to beat the lowly Chiefs, and lost quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to a sprained shoulder. Byron Leftwich will start in place of Big Ben, and the Steelers will not be the same team without Roethlisberger. Ben brings so many intangibles to Pittsburgh, like his extension of plays, that Leftwich will not be able to replace. Baltimore is rolling, and the injury-hampered Steelers will not be able to stop them. The Ravens will keep first place.
Chicago at San Francisco – Monday, 8:30 – A matchup between two of the NFC’s best could come down to who plays at quarterback. Both Jay Cutler of the Bears and Alex Smith of the 49ers suffered concussions in their Week 10 games. Smith reported blurred vision while playing, but appears to be a go for Monday night. Cutler, however, hasn’t practiced this week and it seems unlikely that he’ll take the field on Monday. If he can’t, Jason Campbell will get the start for Chicago (7-2), and that makes Chicago considerably worse. It’s hard to imagine Brandon Marshall being able to stretch the Niners defense and clear the box with Campbell at quarterback. The 49ers (6-2-1) played a sloppy game against St. Louis that ended in a tie, but they excel at stopping Chicago’s main strength, the run game. If Cutler can play, things could be different, but as things stand right now, San Francisco has the advantage. I like the 49ers to bounce back from their disappointing Week 10 performance.