Super Bowl XLVII is almost upon us. The nominal Super Bowl has evolved into a cultural phenomenon of music, celebrities, and, of course, commercials. But that all exists in the shadow of the centerpiece of the festivities: the game itself. It is a football game not unlike any other, but the added hoopla creates an interesting dynamic that the head coaches of the teams involved need to combat. John and Jim Harbaugh (coaches of Ravens and 49ers, respectively) should have no issue keeping their players under control. What everything should come out to is a great football game that looks to be a close one.
This year’s Baltimore Ravens team, in certain aspects, calls to mind the 2007 New York Giants team that won Super Bowl XLII. Joe Flacco plays Eli Manning for the Ravens as the middling quarterback who catches fire when it matters in the playoffs, and (in Manning’s case) leads his team to a Super Bowl victory. Baltimore still leans on its defense and running game, as did the aforementioned Giants, but this game will be won or lost based on the performance of Flacco. What has made Joe so dangerous in the playoffs thus far is his ability to throw the deep ball. San Francisco defensive coordinator Vic Fangio does an outstanding job of mixing up the looks given by his secondary, which will make it difficult for Flacco to target Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin deep down the field. However, it is clear that Flacco has, at least for the time being, become a different class of quarterback during Jim Caldwell’s short reign as offensive coordinator. This is not the Ravens teams of old that relied so heavily on the run and defense. Baltimore is undeniably a passing team now, but a successful running performance from Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce would go a long way towards a Ravens win.
San Francisco has undergone a transformation of its own, from the conservative game management style of Alex Smith to an explosive offense led by sophomore spark plug Colin Kaepernick. The Niners remain balanced, and the Ravens can expect a heavy dose of Frank Gore on the ground. The effectiveness of the San Francisco offense stems not from Kaepernick’s running ability (though that is important), but mainly from the new quarterback’s ability to throw the ball deep. Wideout Michael Crabtree has become Kaepernick’s weapon of choice, and he will certainly be utilized, but San Francisco’s X-factor on offense will be tight end Vernon Davis. Davis’s combination of size and speed makes him a dangerous threat down the field and in the red zone. Baltimore’s aging linebackers don’t have the speed to stay in step with Davis, and the Raven defensive backs should struggle with the size of Davis. Defensively, the Niner pass rush has been dormant in the postseason, producing just two sacks in two games. However, the San Francisco front seven is still potentially a game-changing unit, and a reworked Baltimore offensive line will need to step up to neutralize them.
Baltimore’s win in the AFC Championship against the Patriots was shocking in that they were able to neutralize an offense that very well seemed unstoppable at times. The Ravens defense has ridden the wave of emotion stemming from the impending retirement of Ray Lewis to new levels of skillful play. Even more important than the defense’s improvement is the emergence of Joe Flacco as a top-tier quarterback over the past few weeks; his transformation from a picture of inconsistency to a feared weapon has been remarkable. Baltimore has the look of a team on a mission, bent on securing a title for their departing leader.
On the other hand, Jim Harbaugh has been able to reshape his team into an offensive power in a matter of weeks, and the 49ers’ prowess on both offense and defense makes them a formidable opponent. Their seventeen-point comeback in the NFC Championship Game in Atlanta was impressive, but their slow start was dangerous. In a game like the Super Bowl, where momentum is a palpable force, San Francisco cannot afford to have a poor first quarter.
The Ravens and 49er defenses should dictate the pace of this game. Colin Kaepernick has largely escaped any costly turnovers thus far, but he has made numerous dangerous throws, and a defense with a couple of ball hawks like Baltimore may take advantage of Kaepernick’s boldness. If Joe Flacco can make a few big throws, as he has throughout these playoffs, Baltimore can lean on Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce and eat up the clock, while keeping the 49ers offense off the field. I think Flacco will do so. Baltimore has been a different, elite team this postseason, passing every test given to them with flying colors thus far. They’ll finish the job for Ray Lewis come Sunday.
Prediction: Baltimore 24, San Francisco 21