Indianapolis at Jacksonville – Thursday, 8:20 – Week 9 was Andrew Luck’s coming out party. The rookie star exploded for over 400 yards passing and two touchdowns to lead Indy (5-3) to an emotional home win over the Dolphins. Ailing coach Chuck Pagano delivered a rousing post-game speech to his squad, and the Colts will surely carry this momentum to Jacksonville. The Jags (1-7) are a mess offensively, with an equally poor defense to boot. Unless Blaine Gabbert somehow manages to outplay Andrew Luck, Jacksonville should find it difficult to compete in this one. Indianapolis should pick up the divisional win.
New York Giants at Cincinnati – Sunday, 1:00 – The Giants treated their home crowd (which included me) to quite a debacle last Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers. New York (6-3) was thoroughly outplayed by the road team, and this team desperately needs a bye week to reinvigorate an offense that has become somewhat predictable. Unfortunately for fans of Big Blue, the bye doesn’t come until Week 11. Instead, they travel to Cincinnati to face a very pedestrian Bengals team. A.J. Green makes the Bengals (3-5) dangerous on offense, but their defense, one of the league’s best last year, has been plagued with inconsistency. That inconsistency will cost Cincy on Sunday, and the Giants will bounce back on the road.
Tennessee at Miami – Sunday, 1:00 – Both Tennessee (3-6) and Miami (4-4) come into this week looking to rebound after tough losses in Week 9. The Titans were beaten as badly as any team in recent memory against the Bears, in Tennessee no less. Their performance was so atrocious that owner Bud Adams actually went public and said that his team was “grossly outcoached and outplayed” while threatening organizational changes. Whatever changes he makes won’t help the lowly Titans D on Sunday (27th against the pass, 30th against the rush). The Dolphins (4-4) suffered a difficult defeat to Indy last week, but Miami is clearly the better team here. Tennessee relies on Chris Johnson, and Johnson will have a hard time finding space against the stout run defense of Miami. I like the Dolphins to easily handle the Titans.
Detroit at Minnesota – Sunday, 1:00 – This is a pivotal matchup for the NFC North race. Detroit (4-4) has recovered from an awful 1-3 start by winning three of their last four, but still find themselves in the cellar of the division. The Lions boast the league’s best passing offense, and the running game has looked occasionally brilliant. Last week, the Detroit running backs combined for four touchdowns against the Jags. You shouldn’t expect a repeat performance, but if the Lions can establish the ground game, their chances in this one look good. The Vikings (5-4) are reeling after losing three of four following a blistering start. Quarterback Christian Ponder appears to have entered the “sophomore slump,” and must improve for the Vikings to win. A key will be the health of Minnesota playmaker Percy Harvin, who badly sprained his left ankle in Week 9. Harvin must play for Minnesota to have a chance. Either way, these two teams are headed in opposite directions. Detroit gets the W and keeps rising, and Minnesota keeps falling.
Buffalo at New England – Sunday, 1:00 – Buffalo fans are understandably nervous about this game. The last time the Bills (3-5) faced New England, they surrendered 52 points. I expect more of the same from this game. New England has far too many offensive weapons for Buffalo to cope with, and the return of Aaron Hernandez should provide an additional boost for the Pats (5-3). New England is clearly the better team, and Gillette Stadium still provides one of the best home field advantages in football. Chalk it up as a lock. New England gets it done at home.
Atlanta at New Orleans – Sunday, 1:00 – No one ever wants to play the Saints at the Superdome. New Orleans (3-5) effectively dismantled the Eagles on Monday Night Football, with Drew Brees throwing a mere six incomplete passes. While the Saints have looked improved in recent games, their defense is still one of the league’s worst, and Matty Ice and the rest of the Falcons must be excited to face such a weak unit. Atlanta (8-0) is the only undefeated team left in the NFL, but they did not look good against Dallas in their last game, mustering just 19 points. The Falcons offense should find the going much easier against the atrocity that is the Saints defense, but the defense must be able to slow down Drew Brees and Co. Running back Michael Turner will need his touches as well, as burning clock will help to keep Brees off the field and the Saints defense on it. In the end, I think Atlanta remains unbeaten by taking down the Saints in the Big Easy.
San Diego at Tampa Bay – Sunday, 1:00 – Doug Martin formally introduced himself to the American public with his Week 9 performance against Oakland. The rookie running back romped for over 200 yards in the first half and four touchdowns. Martin was tagged by many analysts as a sleeper from the 2012 draft, and they appear to have been absolutely right. Tampa (4-4) seems to have been hitting its stride as a team, with Vincent Jackson playing particularly well. The Chargers (4-4) are an inconsistent team led by a poor coach, Norv Turner, but they have plenty of talent, and Philip Rivers can play with the best of them. However, Rivers also costs his team quite often, and a big mistake by him could determine the outcome of the game. The Chargers let the Chiefs stay in the game in Week 9, and the Bucs are certainly better than KC. Tampa Bay should take care of business at Raymond James Stadium.
Denver at Carolina – Sunday, 1:00 – Heading into this week, several teams seem to be coming into their own as a group. The Denver Broncos (5-3) are one of those teams. After a rough start that prompted many to question the return of Peyton Manning, Denver has ripped off three straight wins, and Peyton has taken full, efficient command of the Bronco attack. Eric Decker has been bestowed the title of Peyton’s favorite target, and that tandem should have a field day against a porous Carolina secondary. The Panthers (2-6) managed to take down the Redskins in Week 9 in an ugly one, but ugly may be the only way Carolina can go these days. Cam Newton’s sophomore slump has defined the year for Carolina, and the moody quarterback shows no signs of turning things around. He has his work cut out for him going against the likes of Denver’s Champ Bailey, Von Miller, and Elvis Dumervil. Denver should outduel Carolina in Charlotte.
Oakland at Baltimore – Sunday, 1:00 – Baltimore has a chance here to absolutely coast to an easy victory. However, the Ravens (6-2) have allowed bad teams to stick around in their games this year (see the 9-6 Baltimore-KC abomination to modern football). It will serve John Harbaugh well to make sure his squad is hungry for a win. Though they have been plagued by injuries on defense, the Ravens are still a very good team, much better than the Raiders. Oakland (3-5) has shot themselves in the foot with untimely turnovers and mental mistakes, and stuff like that just doesn’t improve over one week. It doesn’t help that they may be without their most important offensive player, running back Darren McFadden. The Raiders also face the unenviable task of traveling cross-country to play at M&T Bank Stadium, one of the toughest environments for road teams in the NFL. Baltimore hasn’t lost at home yet this year. They won’t on Sunday. The Ravens win easy.
New York Jets at Seattle – Sunday, 4:05 -The circus that is the New York Jets hits the road to take on a very physical Seattle team. The Seahawks (5-4) are coming off of a good win against a quality Minnesota team, and Russell Wilson has been outstanding at home this year (9 touchdowns against no picks). Seattle’s defensive backs are a bunch of ball hawks, and they will surely take advantage of error-prone Mark Sanchez. The offense of the Jets (3-5) has looked absolutely incompetent. Seattle’s defense is one of the league’s finest, and New York cannot turn the ball over and give Russell Wilson a short field. Seattle is extremely difficult to beat at home (4-0 this year), and the Jets won’t have what it takes to snap the streak. The Seahawks should dispatch of the Jets, and effectively knock the Jets out of contention.
Dallas at Philadelphia – Sunday, 4:25 – This may be the most meaningful game of the week, in terms of the playoff picture. Both Dallas and Philadelphia are squads in flux, with coaches on the hot seat and personnel changes being pondered. Both teams find themselves at 3-5, and the loser will likely begin dismantling their current team in preparation for the future. A loss for the Eagles will likely precipitate the end of the Michael Vick era, and could cost Andy Reid his job. The key for Philadelphia will be neutralizing Dallas’s Demarcus Ware, who will surely be looking to keep Michael Vick on his back for much of Sunday afternoon. Dallas must utilize either Felix Jones or DeMarco Murray to keep the Philadelphia pass rushers from pinning their ears back. Though both teams are desperate, they must maintain their heads, and I think Tony Romo can keep his teammates in line better than Mike Vick can. I like Dallas to save their season, and send Philly into full on panic mode.
St. Louis at San Francisco – Sunday, 4:25 – St. Louis is reeling after three consecutive losses, but Jeff Fisher had a bye week to correct some of his team’s issues. St. Louis (3-5) is 28th league wide in points per game and yards on offense, and they’re not going to magically become the Saints before Sunday, which is too bad for Rams fans since points will most certainly be at a premium going against the Niners. San Francisco (6-2) lets up the fewest points of any NFL team, and has returned to form after that bad loss to the Giants in Week 6. The offense is still a bit shaky, but their defense will always give the 49ers an edge against teams. San Francisco will stifle Sam Bradford and the Rams, and assert their control over the NFC West.
Houston at Chicago – Sunday, 8:20 – This game should shape up to be one of the year’s best. The Bears (7-1) are playing the best football in the NFL right now, and are coming off of an absolute mauling of the Tennessee Titans on the road. The Bears excel on defense and special teams, and those units have produced several scores for Chicago this year. Jay Cutler is still liable to implode at any time, but he has looked good of late, and the Bears are truly firing on all cylinders. Houston (7-1) has established themselves as the class of the AFC, and are one of the league’s most well-rounded teams, along with the Bears. The Texans boast playmakers on both sides of the ball (DE J.J. Watt is one to watch for sure), but Houston has been just a little more inconsistent than the Bears. Also, Houston lost star linebacker Brian Cushing several weeks ago, and the Texans will miss him sorely when trying to stop Chicago backs Matt Forte and Michael Bush. Chicago is simply overwhelming opponents, and though Houston will put up a great fight, the Bears will come out on top.
Kansas City at Pittsburgh – Monday, 8:30 – Last week, the Steelers (5-3) were able to pull off a big road win at the Giants, despite some questionable officiating and even more questionable play calling. Third string running back Isaac Redman tore through the New York defense for 147 yards, and the Steelers ground game will get a boost with the return of starter Rashard Mendenhall. Pittsburgh will face a Kansas City team that has worked hard to establish itself as the worst in the NFL. The Chiefs (1-7) really aren’t good at anything. Running back Jamaal Charles is the team’s biggest offensive threat, but he has been held to just two touchdowns the whole year. Charles won’t bust out against a Pittsburgh D that, though hampered by injuries, remains a strong unit. Don’t expect a close contest this Monday night. Pittsburgh should romp on ESPN.